The majority of price movements that is caused by a rating action is explained by new information which is revealed at the time of the rating action. Typically companies reserve the right to hold back certain information from investors, clients, business partners and competitors. This can be long-term projections, business plans or internal analyses. Usually rating agencies have access to internal documents during their rating process. Therefore, the rating of a company reflects more information than available to the public and to institutional investors such as mutual funds or insurance companies. A rating change itself is therefore an information about a change of a company’s credit quality because it incorporates nonpublic information.
January 2, 2010
What information about a credit you should gather
December 19, 2009
What factors affect your credit value
Significant price changes are not only observed after changes of the rating, but also after changes of the rating outlook. In many cases technical factors represent a major reason for bond price changes after a negative rating action. In particular, large price movements can be observed when investment restrictions of institutional investors are triggered by a rating action.
A good example is the downgrade of Fiat in June 2002. The downgrade from Baa2 to Baa3 induced a large sell-off because investors anticipated
a further downgrade to high yield. But Figure 9.1 also shows that bond prices already fell significantly when Moody’s put Fiat on review for downgrade.
Empirical studies by Weinstein (1977), Hand et al. (1992) and Kliger and Sarig (2000) highlight the following relationships between rating changes
and a corporate issuer’s bond and stock prices:
- Bond prices adjust to a new rating.
- Equity prices also react on rating changes, usually opposite to the bond price movements.
- Surprise upgrades tend to result in a reduced implied equity volatility.
There is no indication that new rating information has an impact on firm value. According to the Asset Substitution Theory equity and bond prices react in opposite directions to rating changes, which ultimately leads to changes in the ratio of the market value of equity to debt.
October 20, 2009
How credit is perceived by customers
The concept of positioning relates to how a product is perceived by customers relative to its competitors. It originated in the advertising industry as a way of identifying those attributes of a product that should be placed in the buyer’s consciousness. For example, a product may be positioned as inexpensive, innovative, old fashioned, prestigious, high quality or any of a multitude of other attributes. Positioning influences attitudes to and perceptions of a product or company brand, rather than changing the product itself. The value of positioning decisions is that they increase awareness of a company’s or product’s capabilities. Positioning can refresh or reinforce an existing brand or explain a specific concept. It links closely with such things as brand management, competitive strategy, pricing, segmentation and market entry strategies.