Changes in credit quality and their perception

71Rating outlooks and watchlists tend to have a built-in lag, too. Moody’s has an 18-month horizon for its outlooks and 90 days for its watchlist, whereas S&P targets 90 days for its credit watch listings, and a longer but unspecified time-horizon for outlooks. Hence, credit ratings appear to be serially correlated. This in turn creates the impression that rating actions tend to lag changes in credit quality and their perception by market participants, reflected in spreads, substantially. Current research focuses on the rating outlook and its impact on corporate bond prices. Since the mid-1990s, European corporate bond investors on average have become much more professional. Consequently, changes in an issuer’s credit quality are anticipated earlier than they were some years ago. In conjunction with the increased liquidity of the European corporate bond market this has led to the observation that bond prices adjust rapidly to the fundamental assessment of market participants and their expectations regarding a possible rating change. Therefore, changes of the rating outlook that lead actual rating changes are monitored closely by corporate bond investors.

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