The majority of price movements that is caused by a rating action is explained by new information which is revealed at the time of the rating action. Typically companies reserve the right to hold back certain information from investors, clients, business partners and competitors. This can be long-term projections, business plans or internal analyses. Usually rating agencies have access to internal documents during their rating process. Therefore, the rating of a company reflects more information than available to the public and to institutional investors such as mutual funds or insurance companies. A rating change itself is therefore an information about a change of a company’s credit quality because it incorporates nonpublic information.
January 2, 2010
What information about a credit you should gather
December 19, 2009
What factors affect your credit value
Significant price changes are not only observed after changes of the rating, but also after changes of the rating outlook. In many cases technical factors represent a major reason for bond price changes after a negative rating action. In particular, large price movements can be observed when investment restrictions of institutional investors are triggered by a rating action.
A good example is the downgrade of Fiat in June 2002. The downgrade from Baa2 to Baa3 induced a large sell-off because investors anticipated
a further downgrade to high yield. But Figure 9.1 also shows that bond prices already fell significantly when Moody’s put Fiat on review for downgrade.
Empirical studies by Weinstein (1977), Hand et al. (1992) and Kliger and Sarig (2000) highlight the following relationships between rating changes
and a corporate issuer’s bond and stock prices:
- Bond prices adjust to a new rating.
- Equity prices also react on rating changes, usually opposite to the bond price movements.
- Surprise upgrades tend to result in a reduced implied equity volatility.
There is no indication that new rating information has an impact on firm value. According to the Asset Substitution Theory equity and bond prices react in opposite directions to rating changes, which ultimately leads to changes in the ratio of the market value of equity to debt.
October 13, 2009
How credit brands build customer loyalty
This links with the next advantage: the ability of brands to build customer loyalty, again because of the trust and even affection that they can generate. Customer groups can identify preferred brands easily, becoming repeat purchasers. A classic example is the old adage “no one ever got fired for buying ibm”. In this extreme case, even when consumers did not necessarily like the product, they still respected the brand.
Another advantage of brands is that businesses can launch profitable new products with a flying start by exploiting the popularity and strength of an established brand. Cherry Coke and Diet Coke are examples of this approach, where the strong, established Coca-Cola brand (probably one of the strongest commercial brands in history) underpinned the launch of these two new drinks. This reinforced the brand still further by attacking the competition, adding another dimension to the brand (innovation) and developing new markets (such as the diet soda market). There are two benefits: brands often make it easier to introduce new products by exploiting “brand equity”; and they provide opportunities to open up new market segments. For example, food manufacturers often exploit their position to create sub-brands of diet versions (such as an established yogurt manufacturer successfully launching a low-fat product).